{
  "scope": {
    "included": [
      "无偏倚病原mNGS（DNA、RNA、DNA+RNA）",
      "血浆cf-mNGS",
      "病原靶向高通量测序tNGS"
    ],
    "excluded": [
      "常规培养/PCR",
      "公共卫生监测WGS",
      "科研微生物组",
      "肿瘤NGS"
    ]
  },
  "event_precedence": [
    "ICU/PICU/NICU",
    "血液/HSCT",
    "实体器官移植",
    "呼吸",
    "CNS",
    "儿科",
    "FUO/其他感染"
  ],
  "patient_conservation": "院内：每次住院只进入一个主通道，全部通道池不超过年出院事件。组合TAM/SAM：在医院事件求和后，以4%–18%共享情景扣减跨院转诊与重复episode；这是边界情景，不是患者级追踪。商业SOM/收入保留机构订单口径，不用患者去重因子删除接收院可能发生的必要复检。",
  "tam": "临床TAM = 各互斥通道中的疑难/危重/常规病原学未解决且符合共识适用条件的唯一临床事件之和；不含复测。",
  "sam": "SAM = TAM × 样本可得 × 时效适配 × 医学实验室合规能力 × 地区支付可及 × 医院工作流承载。",
  "som": "稳态关联生态SOM = 机构SAM × 招采可进入 × 竞争中标 × 产品匹配；组合输出是可赢检测订单，不是唯一患者数，也不等于世和发行主体SOM。年度爬坡只在5年NPV现金流中计一次。",
  "vendor_revenue": "厂商净收入 = 可赢检测订单 × 每机构事件检测份数 ×（院内试剂/外送服务路径加权净价）；跨院转诊患者在接收院的必要复检不被患者去重因子删除，未使用固定GMV分成。",
  "shihe_gate": "世和发行主体当前无感染检测资质，基准新增临床检测收入为0。重返情景为条件性战略期权，另乘成功概率并扣除平台固定投入。",
  "npv": "5年NPV采用20%/40%/62%/82%/100%爬坡和12%–18%折现率；风险调整后再乘10%–40%重返成功概率。",
  "ranking": "不发布确定名次；蒙特卡洛进入前15%机会组的频率仅以粗概率带展示。A/B级证据才可进入核心机会，C/D级高模型值标为待核验/规模补证。",
  "distribution_semantics": "除非另有说明，[low, mode, high]均表示三角分布的下界、众数、上界；portfolio_shared=true表示同一次抽样在全部医院间共享，防止系统误差被逐院求和分散。",
  "priors": [
    {
      "name": "三级医院周转代理",
      "range": "30–52次/床年；类型分层",
      "source_ids": [
        "S007"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "ICU脓毒症占比",
      "range": "32%–55%，众数42.5%",
      "source_ids": [
        "S013"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "临床适用/未解决比例",
      "range": "按通道8%–75%",
      "source_ids": [
        "S010",
        "S011",
        "S039"
      ],
      "classification": "文献边界+宽专家先验"
    },
    {
      "name": "患者收费锚点",
      "range": "1900–4000元/次",
      "source_ids": [
        "S018",
        "S019",
        "S038"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "院内试剂净价锚点",
      "range": "mNGS 780、tNGS 320元/报告",
      "source_ids": [
        "S020"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "外送净价锚点",
      "range": "mNGS 2400、tNGS 720–1440元/报告",
      "source_ids": [
        "S045"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "跨院转诊/重复episode扣减",
      "range": "4%–18%",
      "source_ids": [
        "S052"
      ],
      "classification": "只用于组合TAM/SAM唯一episode；商业订单不机械删除"
    }
  ],
  "parameter_registry": [
    {
      "group": "规模代理",
      "parameter": "缺失床位相对旧底库候选值",
      "distribution": [
        0.55,
        1.0,
        1.65
      ],
      "unit": "倍",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [],
      "basis": "D级缺失值宽边界；不是实测"
    },
    {
      "group": "规模代理",
      "parameter": "床位周转·综合",
      "distribution": [
        30,
        41.9,
        52
      ],
      "unit": "出院/床年",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S007"
      ],
      "basis": "2024三级医院床位使用率与平均住院日锚点"
    },
    {
      "group": "规模代理",
      "parameter": "床位周转·儿童/传染/肿瘤/中医/妇幼",
      "distribution": {
        "儿童": [
          30,
          44,
          58
        ],
        "传染": [
          18,
          28,
          40
        ],
        "肿瘤": [
          24,
          33,
          43
        ],
        "中医": [
          20,
          30,
          42
        ],
        "妇幼": [
          28,
          42,
          55
        ]
      },
      "unit": "出院/床年",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S007"
      ],
      "basis": "类型分层宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "ICU",
      "parameter": "ICU床位占总床位·能力0/1/2/3",
      "distribution": {
        "0": [
          0.01,
          0.018,
          0.03
        ],
        "1": [
          0.018,
          0.03,
          0.045
        ],
        "2": [
          0.03,
          0.05,
          0.075
        ],
        "3": [
          0.045,
          0.07,
          0.105
        ]
      },
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S008",
        "S009"
      ],
      "basis": "建设规范/目标与能力分层代理"
    },
    {
      "group": "ICU",
      "parameter": "床位使用率",
      "distribution": [
        0.72,
        0.82,
        0.9
      ],
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S008",
        "S009"
      ],
      "basis": "宽运行先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "ICU",
      "parameter": "平均住ICU日",
      "distribution": [
        5.5,
        7.5,
        10.0
      ],
      "unit": "天",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [],
      "basis": "专家边界；需院级实际量替换"
    },
    {
      "group": "ICU",
      "parameter": "ICU脓毒症占比",
      "distribution": [
        0.32,
        0.425,
        0.55
      ],
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S013"
      ],
      "basis": "中国多中心前瞻队列锚点"
    },
    {
      "group": "ICU",
      "parameter": "脓毒症mNGS临床适用",
      "distribution": [
        0.12,
        0.22,
        0.36
      ],
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S011",
        "S039"
      ],
      "basis": "非普筛的共识边界+宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "血液/HSCT",
      "parameter": "非ICU血液患者池·能力0/1/2/3",
      "distribution": {
        "0": [
          0.003,
          0.008,
          0.015
        ],
        "1": [
          0.012,
          0.025,
          0.045
        ],
        "2": [
          0.035,
          0.065,
          0.105
        ],
        "3": [
          0.075,
          0.125,
          0.19
        ]
      },
      "unit": "剩余出院事件比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S010"
      ],
      "basis": "专科能力分层宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "血液/HSCT",
      "parameter": "感染复杂度×mNGS适用",
      "distribution": {
        "感染复杂度": [
          0.12,
          0.22,
          0.38
        ],
        "mNGS适用": [
          0.15,
          0.28,
          0.46
        ]
      },
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S010"
      ],
      "basis": "血液病共识边界"
    },
    {
      "group": "实体移植",
      "parameter": "缺失移植量时每器官资质年例数",
      "distribution": [
        25,
        70,
        180
      ],
      "unit": "例/器官资质年",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S017"
      ],
      "basis": "资质只作分层；数值是明确标注的宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "实体移植",
      "parameter": "每移植例随访住院事件×复杂感染适用",
      "distribution": {
        "随访事件": [
          1.2,
          1.8,
          2.6
        ],
        "复杂感染适用": [
          0.08,
          0.18,
          0.35
        ]
      },
      "unit": "倍/比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S010",
        "S011"
      ],
      "basis": "宽临床先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "呼吸",
      "parameter": "非ICU呼吸患者池·能力0/1/2/3",
      "distribution": {
        "0": [
          0.005,
          0.012,
          0.025
        ],
        "1": [
          0.025,
          0.055,
          0.09
        ],
        "2": [
          0.07,
          0.12,
          0.18
        ],
        "3": [
          0.12,
          0.2,
          0.3
        ]
      },
      "unit": "剩余出院事件比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S011",
        "S039"
      ],
      "basis": "能力分层宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "呼吸",
      "parameter": "重症/难治×mNGS适用",
      "distribution": {
        "重症难治": [
          0.08,
          0.18,
          0.3
        ],
        "mNGS适用": [
          0.12,
          0.23,
          0.39
        ]
      },
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S011",
        "S039"
      ],
      "basis": "共识边界+宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "CNS",
      "parameter": "神经患者池·能力0/1/2/3",
      "distribution": {
        "0": [
          0.003,
          0.008,
          0.015
        ],
        "1": [
          0.01,
          0.025,
          0.045
        ],
        "2": [
          0.03,
          0.06,
          0.095
        ],
        "3": [
          0.06,
          0.105,
          0.16
        ]
      },
      "unit": "剩余出院事件比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S011"
      ],
      "basis": "能力分层宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "CNS",
      "parameter": "疑似感染×mNGS适用",
      "distribution": {
        "疑似感染": [
          0.005,
          0.015,
          0.035
        ],
        "mNGS适用": [
          0.3,
          0.55,
          0.75
        ]
      },
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S011"
      ],
      "basis": "共识边界+宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "儿科",
      "parameter": "儿科患者池·能力0/1/2/3",
      "distribution": {
        "0": [
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.002
        ],
        "1": [
          0.02,
          0.06,
          0.12
        ],
        "2": [
          0.08,
          0.16,
          0.26
        ],
        "3": [
          0.18,
          0.3,
          0.45
        ]
      },
      "unit": "剩余出院事件比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S011"
      ],
      "basis": "能力分层宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "儿科",
      "parameter": "复杂感染×mNGS适用",
      "distribution": {
        "复杂感染": [
          0.025,
          0.07,
          0.13
        ],
        "mNGS适用": [
          0.15,
          0.28,
          0.48
        ]
      },
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S011"
      ],
      "basis": "共识边界+宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "FUO/其他",
      "parameter": "感染患者池·能力0/1/2/3",
      "distribution": {
        "0": [
          0.002,
          0.006,
          0.015
        ],
        "1": [
          0.01,
          0.03,
          0.06
        ],
        "2": [
          0.035,
          0.075,
          0.14
        ],
        "3": [
          0.12,
          0.28,
          0.5
        ]
      },
      "unit": "剩余出院事件比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S011",
        "S039"
      ],
      "basis": "能力分层宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "FUO/其他",
      "parameter": "mNGS临床适用",
      "distribution": [
        0.08,
        0.18,
        0.32
      ],
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S011",
        "S039"
      ],
      "basis": "共识边界+宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "共享系统误差",
      "parameter": "临床适用系统因子",
      "distribution": [
        0.7,
        1.0,
        1.35
      ],
      "unit": "倍",
      "portfolio_shared": true,
      "source_ids": [],
      "basis": "组合级认知不确定性"
    },
    {
      "group": "SAM",
      "parameter": "样本可得",
      "distribution": [
        0.7,
        0.85,
        0.94
      ],
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S011",
        "S012"
      ],
      "basis": "样本路径与质量宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "SAM",
      "parameter": "结果时效适配",
      "distribution": [
        0.68,
        0.84,
        0.95
      ],
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S011",
        "S045"
      ],
      "basis": "临床时效/招采TAT边界"
    },
    {
      "group": "SAM",
      "parameter": "实验室合规·能力0/1/2/3",
      "distribution": {
        "0": [
          0.18,
          0.32,
          0.5
        ],
        "1": [
          0.32,
          0.52,
          0.72
        ],
        "2": [
          0.52,
          0.72,
          0.88
        ],
        "3": [
          0.72,
          0.88,
          0.97
        ]
      },
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S012",
        "S040"
      ],
      "basis": "LDT验证与质控门槛"
    },
    {
      "group": "SAM",
      "parameter": "工作流承载",
      "distribution": "tri(0.32+0.22×能力, 0.50+0.32×能力, 0.68+0.27×能力)，能力=(ICU+感染+微生物+吸引力)/12",
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [],
      "basis": "显式能力函数先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "SAM",
      "parameter": "支付可及",
      "distribution": "tri(0.24+0.25×支付分, 0.38+0.37×支付分, 0.58+0.32×支付分)",
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S003",
        "S005",
        "S006"
      ],
      "basis": "2025年鉴所载2024年地区收入/医保分值映射"
    },
    {
      "group": "共享系统误差",
      "parameter": "SAM系统因子",
      "distribution": [
        0.72,
        1.0,
        1.3
      ],
      "unit": "倍",
      "portfolio_shared": true,
      "source_ids": [],
      "basis": "组合级认知不确定性"
    },
    {
      "group": "SOM",
      "parameter": "招采可进入",
      "distribution": "tri(0.18+0.05×吸引力, 0.34+0.08×吸引力, min(0.92,0.55+0.10×吸引力))",
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S020",
        "S021",
        "S022",
        "S023",
        "S045"
      ],
      "basis": "招采路径+能力分层宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "共享系统误差",
      "parameter": "招采系统因子",
      "distribution": [
        0.75,
        1.0,
        1.25
      ],
      "unit": "倍",
      "portfolio_shared": true,
      "source_ids": [],
      "basis": "组合级采购周期不确定性"
    },
    {
      "group": "SOM",
      "parameter": "在位企业中标率",
      "distribution": [
        0.14,
        0.3,
        0.52
      ],
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S020",
        "S021",
        "S022",
        "S023"
      ],
      "basis": "竞争情景先验；非公司披露"
    },
    {
      "group": "SOM",
      "parameter": "产品匹配",
      "distribution": [
        0.68,
        0.84,
        0.95
      ],
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S010",
        "S011",
        "S012"
      ],
      "basis": "场景/样本/合规适配宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "收入路径",
      "parameter": "院内份额·公开外送/公开院内/平台/未知",
      "distribution": {
        "公开外送": [
          0.02,
          0.08,
          0.18
        ],
        "公开院内": [
          0.72,
          0.86,
          0.96
        ],
        "平台": [
          0.25,
          0.48,
          0.72
        ],
        "未知": "tri(max(0.02,mode-0.22), mode, min(0.88,mode+0.26)); mode=0.08+0.13×微生物+0.05×吸引力"
      },
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S020",
        "S021",
        "S022",
        "S023"
      ],
      "basis": "直接路径证据优先，缺失时宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "产品组合",
      "parameter": "各场景mNGS占比",
      "distribution": {
        "ICU": [
          0.65,
          0.8,
          0.92
        ],
        "血液": [
          0.7,
          0.84,
          0.94
        ],
        "移植": [
          0.72,
          0.85,
          0.95
        ],
        "呼吸": [
          0.32,
          0.5,
          0.68
        ],
        "CNS": [
          0.78,
          0.88,
          0.96
        ],
        "儿科": [
          0.52,
          0.69,
          0.84
        ],
        "FUO/其他": [
          0.42,
          0.6,
          0.78
        ]
      },
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S010",
        "S011",
        "S020",
        "S045"
      ],
      "basis": "场景分层宽先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "净价",
      "parameter": "院内试剂mNGS/tNGS",
      "distribution": {
        "mNGS": [
          650,
          780,
          1000
        ],
        "tNGS": [
          280,
          320,
          480
        ]
      },
      "unit": "元/报告",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S020"
      ],
      "basis": "中标单价锚点+宽边界"
    },
    {
      "group": "净价",
      "parameter": "外送服务mNGS/tNGS",
      "distribution": {
        "mNGS": [
          1800,
          2400,
          3200
        ],
        "tNGS": [
          720,
          980,
          1440
        ]
      },
      "unit": "元/报告",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S018",
        "S019",
        "S021",
        "S045"
      ],
      "basis": "地方价格/控制价/合同锚点"
    },
    {
      "group": "共享系统误差",
      "parameter": "价格系统因子",
      "distribution": [
        0.85,
        1.0,
        1.2
      ],
      "unit": "倍",
      "portfolio_shared": true,
      "source_ids": [],
      "basis": "组合级价格/回款不确定性"
    },
    {
      "group": "收入",
      "parameter": "每机构事件检测份数",
      "distribution": [
        1.0,
        1.05,
        1.14
      ],
      "unit": "报告/机构事件",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [],
      "basis": "复检宽先验；不回填TAM"
    },
    {
      "group": "贡献利润",
      "parameter": "院内/外送贡献率",
      "distribution": {
        "院内": [
          0.22,
          0.36,
          0.5
        ],
        "外送": [
          0.1,
          0.22,
          0.36
        ]
      },
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [
        "S001"
      ],
      "basis": "感染路径宽先验；不使用世和肿瘤毛利"
    },
    {
      "group": "世和重返",
      "parameter": "新进入者稳态中标率",
      "distribution": [
        0.05,
        0.14,
        0.3
      ],
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": false,
      "source_ids": [],
      "basis": "战略情景先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "世和重返",
      "parameter": "重返成功概率",
      "distribution": [
        0.1,
        0.22,
        0.4
      ],
      "unit": "概率",
      "portfolio_shared": true,
      "source_ids": [
        "S001"
      ],
      "basis": "基于资格/IP/产品/渠道前提的决策先验；非公司预测"
    },
    {
      "group": "世和重返",
      "parameter": "5年年度爬坡",
      "distribution": [
        0.2,
        0.4,
        0.62,
        0.82,
        1.0
      ],
      "unit": "稳态比例Y1–Y5",
      "portfolio_shared": true,
      "source_ids": [],
      "basis": "仅在NPV现金流使用一次"
    },
    {
      "group": "世和重返",
      "parameter": "折现率",
      "distribution": [
        0.12,
        0.15,
        0.18
      ],
      "unit": "年",
      "portfolio_shared": true,
      "source_ids": [],
      "basis": "战略决策先验"
    },
    {
      "group": "世和重返",
      "parameter": "平台固定投入",
      "distribution": [
        30000000,
        50000000,
        80000000
      ],
      "unit": "元",
      "portfolio_shared": true,
      "source_ids": [],
      "basis": "研发/注册/渠道决策情景；非公司披露"
    },
    {
      "group": "组合患者去重",
      "parameter": "跨院转诊/重复episode率",
      "distribution": [
        0.04,
        0.1,
        0.18
      ],
      "unit": "比例",
      "portfolio_shared": true,
      "source_ids": [
        "S052"
      ],
      "basis": "只用于组合TAM/SAM唯一episode；商业订单另行保留"
    }
  ]
}